• George Kailas

Click the links below to see more information on some great examples of the power of our platform


Summary of our first research report on Enphase Energy (ENPH) - 59.7% gain since publishing on 07/13/22 (Link to full report)


NVDA and AMD trade summary (241% profit week of 11/7 for NVDA and AMD a 53% gain the following week)


QQQ Trade Summary (248% profit week of 10/24)


Net Options Sentiment Predicts Positive Inflation Reading 11/9 - 11/10


Confused by any terms? Click our glossary help file. If you are still confused after email info@prospero.ai and we will add something to clear it up. The first mention of a signal unique to our platform we will link to the help file IE Net Options Sentiment.


  • George Kailas

QQQ, SPY Net Options Sentiment proved helpful + UNH price could break upwards if we avoid a bear week.


Welcome to the 11th edition of the Prospero newsletter, you are receiving this if you signed up for our Closed Beta. If you signed-up for our app but don’t have it yet - quick join instructions - Apple users, search “prospero testflight" in your email, for Android use this link. If you are having any issues this link will help you troubleshoot.


Confused by any terms? Click our glossary help file. If you are still confused after email info@prospero.ai and we will add something to clear it up. The first mention of a signal unique to our platform we will link to the help file IE Net Options Sentiment.


In Review - QQQ and SPY AVG Net Options Sentiment stay above bearish warning levels but concerning signs remain


From the 11/20 letter “Watch for QQQ Net Options Sentiment below 20 and SPY below 10. If this downward trend holds price could follow them down further.” Both of these metrics surpassed the above warning levels but not decisively, which is in line with this uneven week. SPY and QQQ had steeper rises in Net Options Sentiment on 11/21 compared to price, providing solid indications of the more bullish price action to follow. However, as can be seen in the graphs below, the AVG high values for Net Options Sentiment are trending down. QQQ is in a bigger downtrend of peaks. This combined with worse price performance relative to SPY to end the week, paints a more concerning picture for QQQ.



Watch SPY and QQQ Net Options Sentiment. If a downtrend continues we could see falling price. Alternatively, the other direction, could indicate another bull run will start. The best sign of a bull run would be SPY Net Options Sentiment holding consistent values in the high 20’s or 30’s.


Interesting Mover (Bull potential) - UNH (UnitedHealth Group Inc)



UNH Net Options Sentiment rallied from below 10 on 11/22 to above 60 on 11/25. Excellent, > 90 Profitability and Net Social Sentiment make it a potentially attractive short term play that is risk mitigated. (Profitability has shown to insulate against downside risk well since this letter started)


Expect an up week if: UNH Net Options Sentiment > 50. SPY Net Options Sentiment > 25. (Risk factor - UNH Social Sentiment < 50)


Interesting Mover (Bear potential) - RJF (Raymond James Financial Inc)



RJF is going the opposite direction of UNH. While it does have a good (78) Profitability, this strength is mitigated by the fact that its average price target of $124.40 is only just above its 11/25 close of $119.56. Our AVG Price Target / Current Price calculation shows RJF in the bottom quarter of stocks which is a big warning sign it may be overvalued and due for a price correction. Low social sentiment (26) adds to the concern that Net Options Sentiment and price could keep trending down, especially in a bearish market.


Expect a down week if: RJF Net Options Sentiment < 35. SPY Net Options Sentiment < 20. (Risk factor - RJF Social Sentiment > 50)


In Review - AMD (Advanced Micro Devices)


AMD was up .06% vs. the SPY which was up 1.19% and QQQ which was down .34%. We were not expecting a good week from AMD if the market had a bad one but it was positive to see it outpace the QQQ, even if only slightly. Could be danger ahead for AMD however as we saw a steep decline in Net Options Sentiment to close out the week.



Expect an up week if: AMD Net Options Sentiment > 75. QQQ Net Options Sentiment > 30. (Risk factor - AMD Social Sentiment < 50)


In Review - XYL (Xylem Inc)


XYL was up 1.01% vs. the SPY which was up 1.19%. As we said last week about Net Options and Net Social Sentiment “If these numbers stay low this could be a great bear market play this week.” It immediately reversed 11/21, a good indication that a big sell-off after the ex-dividend date was no longer expected by the options markets. A clear sign not to make a bearish play on it.


Thanks for reading and I hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving!

  • George Kailas

Mounting signs of a Bear run and how we used Net Options Sentiment to time an AMD trade win.


Welcome to the 10th edition of the Prospero newsletter, you are receiving this if you signed up for our Closed Beta. If you signed-up for our app but don’t have it yet - quick join instructions - Apple users, search “prospero testflight" in your email, for Android use this link. If you are having any issues this link will help you troubleshoot.


Confused by any terms? Click our new glossary help file. If that does not help, email info@prospero.ai and we will add your question.



Prospero Adds ETFs to App - QQQ, SPY, DIA as well as many SPDR Sector and Vanguard ETFs

EFTs added: DIA, FTEC, IWF, MGK, QQQ, SCHD, SMH, SOXX, SPY, VGT, VIG, VONG, VTI, VUG, VYM, XLB, XLE, XLI, XLK, XLP, XLU, XLV, XLY. Links to additional information on these ETFs.


Watch for QQQ Net Options Sentiment below 20 and SPY below 10. If this downward trend holds price could follow them down further.

Our 11/13 letter discussed how QQQ Net Options Sentiment could lead the market and while the week was up and down, we are seeing worrisome trends. QQQ and SPY Net Options Sentiment both saw their lowest weekly average since 10/14 and lower AVG daily lows. QQQ Net Options Sentiment had AVG values above 20 for 13 days from 10/17-11/2 and since the most is 4 (11/10-11/15). SPY had AVG values above 10 for 9 days from 10/21-11/2 and since the most is 4 (11/10-11/15).



Earnings and rates displaying bearish patterns as well

On 10/19 Barron's pointed out that companies who beat on sales and EPS were down 0.4% vs. a typical average of +1% and CNN pointed out on 11/10 that 69% beat Q3 estimates. A better than expected quarter explains some bullishness with a recession looming but an increasingly grim Q4 merits extreme caution for long positions. If the market was underwhelmed by earnings beats, stock prices could see even more severe downside if things go in the direction they are moving. Zacks paints the picture of concern well and the below illustrations shows how fast perception of Q4 is declining.




Despite the most recent inflation reading coming in lower than expected and treasury yields briefly dropping (a positive sign) we are seeing them come back up again which is another cause for concern.


Review - success of AMD (Advanced Micro Devices) instead of NVDA

My first two jobs were at the Value Investing Center at Columbia University when I was 16 and then a Value hedge fund at 17. The goal of Prospero is to help retail investors unearth insights with technology but whenever possible we will leverage these Value Investing roots to build conviction. This is the best way to win in the market, agreeing qualitative and quantitative stories. Last Week we combined our metrics with a deeper dive on the comparative value of these chip makers. Value Investing is best applied long term but we demonstrated the benefit of taking a microscope to AMD / NVDA earnings. Using pre-market open values 11/14 to close 11/18 AMD was up 1.45% vs. -5.54% for NVDA. AMD also beat baseline values of -1.17% for QQQ and -0.62% for SPY. See how we used the setup from last week and data from this week to see a 53.43% gain on AMD below.


We showed our 11/11 exit of NVDA last week which is when we got into AMD. AMD and QQQ Net Options Sentiment were both in concerning trends which caused us to exit on 11/16.



Looking ahead to this week - this is typically the kind of setup we’d say if Net Options Sentiment and Net Social Sentiment stay high it could be a good week. This is to say if you are expecting a good week from the market, or we see a reversal in Net Options Sentiment on QQQ, AMD is a good choice.


If you buy stocks this week, this is what we’d recommend for a long hold


With EPS estimates falling, companies with our highest Profitability forecasts alongside high Growth forecasts, is the best way to approach long holds. We subtract Downside Breakout (our stocks with the lowest probability of large price declines) to remove additional risk.


XYL (Xylem Inc) - Bearish setup for Tuesday 11/22

XYL has seen some positive price momentum recently but that is leading into its Ex-Dividend date of 11/21. Meaning tomorrow is the last day to buy the stock to receive a dividend. We saw a pretty steady drop in Net Options Sentiment towards the end of last week.



The steady decline in Net Options Sentiment to end last week could be an indication that there were options plays involved in the dividend that people are pulling out of. The low Net Social Sentiment to go along with it adds to this story. If these numbers stay low this could be a great bear market play this week.